Beware the Hype

Updated 2015 Gartner hype post here.

It’s Friday and in honor of upcoming weekend instead of writing about technology products I humbly present Gartner’s newest hype chart. I certainly agree with them that “The Internet of Things” is at the very pinnacle of hype, with wearables right there next to them but slipping into the “Trough of Disillusionment.”

Gartner's Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2011-2014. Sources: Gartner 2014, Gartner 2013, Forbes 2012, Wired 2011

Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2011-2014.
Sources: Gartner 2014, Gartner 2013, Forbes 2012, Wired 2011

But this chart is more than just a snapshot of today’s technology hype. If we track these charts across the years we can see what technologies survived the hype and are inching towards the “Plateau of Productivity” and what technologies died in the “Trough of Disillusionment” and dropped of the chart completely. I took a closer look at the the hype charts since 2011 and noticed a few promising trends:

  • NFC payments, at the apex in 2011, are now deep in the Trough but may make it safely to the Plateau in a couple of years.
  • 3D printers and scanners: at the apex of height in 2012, survived the hype and are now close to reality, faster than predicted, with consumer 3D printing still facing the longest path.
  • Gamification, last year’s winner, is on its slide down to the Trough. It may not make it through.
  • The big things (big in terms of the science behind them) such as Quantum Computing, Human Augmentation, and Holographic Displays are still on the chart, still with more than 10 years to go until they reach the Plateau, but still being talked about and worked on.

And a few disappointments as well:

  • Virtual Assistants are not being talked about any more. Are we all happy with Siri?
  • Where is Wireless Power?
  • Is Group-Buying finally dead?

Stay humble, Silicon Valley. The game doesn’t end when you’re at the peak of hype. It ends when you make it to the Plateau.

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3 thoughts on “Beware the Hype

  1. Pingback: Spa 1 – Retroactive framework to the Second Life Project | Cyberplacebo's Blog

  2. Pingback: A few thoughts about the tech echo chamber we live in | What it all boils down to

  3. Pingback: The distance between hype and adoption, 2015 edition | What it all boils down to

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